In dealing with the genuine young protesters what is needed is not logic but sense. In the present taking to streets by youth, the security measures and actions only masked the root causes of the uprising. Every person including the leaders of the ruling party and the government is fully occupied by the size of the demonstrations, how it was dispersed and number of causalities injured or killed. This had two-fold effects: one; drawing the attention of the international media, NGOs, governments and international institutions; two: masking the real cause of demonstrations which is the economic deterioration. All are inside the box of demonstrations. Thinking and acting outside the box is most needed under the following complexity:
1. Value of the pound is dramatically plummeting against all foreign money.
2. Scarcity and high prices of commodities and services.
3. Youth unemployment rate is alarming.
4. Industry and trade hard hit by the unrealistic unwise decrees of the Central Bank to curb the illicit dealings in foreign money.
5. The amazing quick disappearance of 75% of the money supply in the banking system.
6. The revelation of dreadful cases of corruption.
7. The calculated detrainment of rich and friendly countries to lend Sudan a helping hand at a really serious juncture leading to a total economic collapse.
In my opinion the recent supply of wheat, flour, bread and fuel is just a temporary analgesic treatment which will relieve the scarcity pain for a short period.
In the likely event of a temporary suspension of demonstrations an equally likely strong, hostile and fierce taking to the streets will recur at the onset of end of the analgesic dose effect. This recurrence will mark the start of the fifth and last stage in economic collapse. It is the stage of detrimental chaos of looting, destruction and disobedience which will be dealt with by the use of excessive force, martial laws and curfew after the killing of thousands in which case the international intervention will be imminent. Sudan will then be complete disarray for a long time. This is actually Plan (B) of the global plans to eradicate the Islamic Movement from the international community, bearing in mind that Sudan is the only country in which the Muslim Brotherhood founded by Imam Hassan Al-Banna in Egypt in 1929 ruled for 30 years.
So, flooding the banking system with new high value banknotes is still thinking inside the box and will aggravate the economic crisis. Those who succeeded in hiding the old money supply will, in a short period replace their oil notes with the new and will hide more of the money.
Thinking our of the box as follows:
1. Admitting that the only way to avert the present crisis is to receive immediate life saving dose of not less than US$5 billion. This US$5 billion will offset the deficit of 2019 budget and give the government a breathing year to plan for sustainable reform in future economy.
2. The life-saving dose of US$5 billion can only be achieved by one of two paths:
a. Fully leaning to the axis of KSA, UAE and Egypt which is the axis blessed by America, Europe and other countries aligned in eradicating terrorism, or
b. Closing one eye and allowing the hidden economy to freely resume its activities which previously closed the gap of the loss of 80% of the budgets revenues after the secession of South Sudan in July 2011 with its 75% of oil proceeds. Since 2011 to 2017 the hidden economy worked well in compensating the loss of foreign money. The catastrophe budget of 2018 suddenly stopped the activities of the hidden economy without proposing or enacting pragmatic alternatives. By the way, the small country of Djibouti with its very limited resources is fully dependent on the hidden economy. Foreign money dealing is commonplace. Djibouti never faced economic crisis.
Comparison with Sudan:
GDP US$3.64 billion, Sudan US$177 billion
Growth Rate 6.7% (number 26 worldwide), Sudan 1.4 (177 worldwide)
Population below poverty 23%, Sudan 60%
Inflation rate 0.7% Sudan 67%
Money reserve US$548 million, Sudan US$198 million
External debt US$1.9 billion, Sudan US$57 billion
Area 23.000 square kilometers, Sudan 1.862.000 square kilometers
So, thinking out of the box is the only way out.
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