In football competitions of home and away matches, there is a golden wisdom: In the home match if the host team fails to score a goal in the first 15 minutes it is very likely to lose the qualifying aggregate of the two matches. After 15 minutes without scoring a goal the host team players become anxious and nervous lacking concentration while the visiting team players gain confidence after adaption to the hostile environment and side home.
This is now happening to the gallant revolutionary masses staging the sit-in around the army HQ. They failed to score a goal after 21 days of the start of sit-in. They are now anxious and started losing confidence in the Transitional Military Council (TMC). They accused the TMC of foot-dragging delaying tactics that could pave the way for a planned coup by external forces in the region. At the same time the opposition forces of the removed regime are reshaping themselves in a new forum consolidating the Islamic members of the Sudanese Islamic Movement in the different parties and groups e.g. NCP, PCP, Reform Now, Peace and Justice Forum.
Nevertheless, the revolution of the youth which started on December 19, 2018 proved to be daring, genuine and patriotic as it succeeded in forcing the armed forces to align with them till they removed a strong, ruthless regime after being in 30-years of iron-fist governance. The revolution of the TMC delayed the uprooting demand of revolutionaries to up-root the Salvation regime.
The following led to the logical downfall of the Salvation regime:
Army, police and civil services cleansing in top and middle ranks of all not affiliated to the Islamic Movement, widespread detention of opposition leaders with ruthless atrocities in the so-called ghost houses which led to death of some of them, unprecedented corruption, injustice, failure to keep the unity of Sudan and loss of 75% of the oil export proceeds which in turn led to the deterioration of the economy, complete destruction of the major schemes in agriculture, industry and infrastructure especially in the transport sector, isolation of Sudan internationally, support of terrorism, global economic sanctions and finally the deteriorated ambivalent foreign policies between two axes in the region – KSA, UAE axis and Qatar axis. This stance led to the deprivation of Sudan from assistance of either axis.
On the other the following factors led to the success of the youth revolution called the Freedom and Change Forces(FCF)) spear headed by the Alliance of Sudanese Professionals Alliance (SPA): well planned tactics of spread of demonstrations in simultaneous timing almost all parts of Khartoum State, punctuality of demonstrations at the specified time, real enthusiasm, courageous confrontation to the excessive force used by the security troops and deep hatred to the Salvation regime.; all under the umbrella and slogans of peaceful demonstrations. Not a single act of destruction or looting was reported in the 4-months rallies.
This slogan deterred the regime and backed down of using excessive force after the international statements strongly condemning the killing of of innocent, armless and peaceful demonstrators. After the 4-months of demonstrations the FCF and the SPA used their decisive tactic of staging a sit-in on April 6, 2019 around the army HQ. After 5 days and on April 11, the army top brass was forced to align and seized power. The low rank officers and Rapid Support Forces played a pivotal role in the downfall of the 30 years Salvation regime.
Unfortunately the change came from army generals who were part and parcel of the Salvation regime. The FCF and SPA openly rejected the declared Transitional Military Council (TMC). In less than 24 hours the TMC chairman and his deputy resigned. After 10 days another three members of the TMC resigned under the protest of the revolutionaries. The 5 members were considered die-hard Muslim Brothers and cornerstones of the Salvation regime.
Now a stalemate is prevailing. TMC adantly insists on its continuation. The FCF calls for full fledged civilian rule. Some non-partisan nationals are working hard to broker a deal between the two stances. Most probably a hybrid Presidential Council will be formed headed by the army general Burhan, Lt. Gen. Himeidti 1st Vice President and 3 other civilians.
In my opinion the FCF did not score a goal in the first 15 days because they lack the experience of achieving goals. The right approach is to set a modality of priorities. They should have started priorities by drafting constitutional declaration which specifies in detail the times of command and hierarchy of institutions e.g. Presidential, Executive and Judicial. If they set limited role of the Presidential Council they could have avoided the current stalemate. Wide authority to civilian government will allow them to reach their goals to fully uproot the failed regime and set policies of quick reform of the distorted civil service, quick deliverance of the collapsed economy by receiving sizeable assistance from the KSA and UAE axis, plans for the rehabilitation of the failed schemes and corporations in agriculture, transport, education and health care.
All of this could have been the Golden Goal in the first 15 minutes which will lend them the full support of most of the populations, not only the revolutionaries. 3 to 4 years of interim governance will produce a new healthy Sudan.
Unfortunately the current stalemate if it continues for more days another coup is imminent.
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