On the 6th of this current November, US is to host talks between Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt with the aim of unifying visions over the issue of the Grand Ethiopian renaissance dam (GERD).
For US to be the host, is not without reasons to justify; Egypt happens to announce that negotiations over GERD have come to a deadlock and therefore, expresses its demand for a fourth party to play the role of the mediator.
In this concern, Samih Shukri, foreign minister of Egypt, comments on the matter like this; ‘GERD’s 2015 declaration of principles stipulates that in case of arise of disagreement over GERD, there is a need to look for a mediator.
On the other hand, US has its own logic to accept the mediation; if it is not to do so, other countries, such as Russia and China, are eligible to fill the vacuum.
It is worth mentioning that Ethiopia is of the conviction that its stance with regard to GERD receives all the due support globally. According to official reports issued by the World Bank, indicate that that 66% of the Ethiopian population live even without electricity-a percentage that is the highest universally.
May be this point in particular has motivated premier Abiy Ahmed to address his parliament like this; ‘no entity has the power to prevent Ethiopia from completing construction works of GERD as being scheduled. And that Ethiopia has the ability to recruit millions of the Ethiopians to defend its stance regarding GERD’.
However, many analysts have expressed their opinions over the subject matter of GERD, conspicuous among them are these; Mohamed Hamid Jumaa, expert in GERD, says that may be the utterances of Ahmed are mere tactics to gain some gains, explaining that his address before the parliament is mainly intended for mobilization and unification of the internal front, adding that the trend is not without a message to convey: urging the international community to interfere to exercise pressure on the Egyptian government whose voice in meetings is noticed to violently raise up high.
He concludes his remarks to talk about Sudan, attributing its silence regarding the matter is not without reasons to justify: ’the change politically that the country has been experiencing does also necessitate changes in its GERD’s negotiating team’.
In a related development, Dr. Salman Mohamed Ahmed Salman, water international expert, talks elaborately about the benefits of GERD to the neighboring countries, especially Sudan; ‘halting of destructive floods. Availability of water abundantly throughout the year, therefore no place for things like drought to occur-a situation that is to allow cultivation of crops continually all over the year. Procurement of navigation systematically and regularly. Getting rid of sediment finally. And compared with the situation presently, electricity will be bought at very lower prices ‘.
Salman affirms that eruption of war because of GERD, is to serve neither party, especially Ethiopia and Egypt, thus conflicts such are utterly excluded.
Mohamed Jami’, expert in the African issues, says that may be the address of Ahmed is not without purpose; increase of popularity, especially after the plague of the ruling alliance with conflicts and frictions, adding that Ethiopia’s forthcoming elections is also an issue that should be put into consideration.
Further, he goes on to indicate that and to exclusion of Sudan, problems that associate with GERD are merely restricted to Ethiopia and Egypt, explaining that Sudan is viewed as so near and much supportive to Ethiopia.
Expert in international relations, Rashid Mohamed, says that the speech of premier Ahmed to use force in defense of GERD, is something that is utterly unexpected and contradicts with his stances peacefully, going to exclude any possibility of eruption of war between Ethiopia and Egypt. ‘The signing of the principles agreement bilaterally as well as the many companies who are involved in the construction of GERD, prevent occurrence of violent scenarios as such’.
And Anwar Ibrahim, journalist, says that the matter of GERD is so complicated, affirming that the times of using force to resolve conflicts are over, advising that problems should only be settled amicably and peacefully.
Ahmed Ibrahim Ballal
Email : Ahmedibrahimballal@hotmail.com
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